Dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict and its Impact in Southeast Asia

The dynamics of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have had a significant impact not only in Europe, but also in Southeast Asia. The conflict that began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea by Russia and intensified in 2022 has changed the world’s geopolitical landscape, including in the Southeast Asia region. First, the economic impact is quite pronounced. Russia and Ukraine are major suppliers of various commodities, especially grain and energy. The increase in food and energy prices due to this conflict caused inflation in many Southeast Asian countries, including Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. These countries, which are highly dependent on commodity imports from these two countries, are starting to look for alternative supplies, thereby triggering tensions in global supply chains. Second, this conflict has encouraged increased military alliances in Southeast Asia. Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam are increasing their security ties with the United States and its allies. This increase in military cooperation aims to strengthen their position in facing potential threats from major powers such as China and Russia. In addition, joint military exercises and weapons procurement are becoming more frequent. Third, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has an impact on the foreign policies of countries in Southeast Asia. Countries like Indonesia which prioritize a free and active foreign policy feel a dilemma. On the one hand, they do not want to depend on western leading countries; on the other hand, they should also participate in international forums to condemn aggression. This creates challenges for diplomacy and demands a more cautious approach. Fourth, the social impact is also increasingly felt, especially through the increase in refugee flows. Although refugees from Ukraine are not coming directly to Southeast Asia, this geopolitical shift could influence international migration. Countries in the region may begin to accept more refugees from countries involved in conflict, adding to the social and economic burden. Fifth, the media and public opinion in Southeast Asia are also affected. News of this conflict changed people’s perceptions of Russia and the West. Discussions about the crisis are increasing on social media platforms, influencing domestic political narratives. As younger generations become increasingly involved in these discussions, polarization may occur, affecting political stability in some countries. Finally, the global climate change that occurred alongside this conflict cannot be ignored. Economic uncertainty resulting from energy and food crises could exacerbate environmental issues in Southeast Asia. Countries previously focused on sustainable development may need to shift their priorities to address this pressing issue, potentially leading to resource disputes in the future. The dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict provide important lessons for countries in Southeast Asia about the importance of resilience in the economy, security and environment in order to adapt to ever-changing global challenges.